Doctors tend to have unrealistic expectations of the success of multi-step medical procedures.

News Release: Doctors tend to have unrealistic expectations of the success of multi-step medical procedures – News Medical / University of Utah Health

Original Study: Analysis of Physicians’ Probability Estimates of a Medical Outcome Based on a Sequence of Events – JAMA Network Open

Commentary on Twitter (thread – click for more)

This just out: Physicians do not logically/correctly estimate the probability of outcomes resulting from sequences of events – a thread. #conjunctionfallacy #probability #medicaldecisionmaking #clinicalreasoning #innumeracy #numeracy https://t.co/zGULPrdVBa @JAMANetworkOpen

— The Phlegmfighter (@phlegmfighter) June 27, 2022